張大千山水畫作香港拍賣市場價格研究(1996-2006)
Abstract
藝術品,是藝術家以其獨特的生命語言,引領觀賞者進入創作者的世界,帶給觀者愉悅的視覺感受,進而豐富、陶冶性靈。藝術品本身沒有客觀的價值,其價格隨著市場的供給需求變化,隨著資本主義盛行、經濟繁榮發展,收藏藝術品的原始動機由單純的喜好作品轉以投資獲利為主,加上媒體的渲染報導,一時間成為熱門投資顯學。然因藝術投資的高風險性與藝術市場的詭譎多變,造成藝術愛好者認為進入門檻過高而卻步不前,筆者有鑑於此,試圖整理、歸納拍賣市場成交價格以探討造成藝術品價格高低的影響因素。
香港,向來是亞洲對世界貿易的重要窗口,也是兩岸三地中,藝術拍賣市場開始最早、發展的最為成熟的地方,此由兩大國際拍賣公司佳士得、蘇富比皆於此設立亞洲總部可窺見。本文即是以張大千山水畫作自1996年至2006年間在香港拍賣市場的成交資料作為主要研究資料,使用統計分析方法,探求畫作成交價格的形成是否有跡可循,進一步建立可供參考的鑑價模式。
根據本文的研究結果顯示,拍賣公司對於藝術品的所定出的預估價格為影響成交價格的最主要因素,除此之外,成交價格也會受到市場氛圍、景氣好壞、藏家偏好甚至不可抗力的天災影響。最後期盼藉由本文的技術分析,提供藝術愛好者在參與市場買賣時,另一個較為科學的判斷依據,藉此降低購買風險,達到感性訴求、理性投資的收藏境界。
This paper seeks to unravel factors in determining auction prices and provide a more reliable auction pricing model. My research method is based on quantitative analysis by using the auction results of Zhang Da Qian’s landscape paintings in Hong Kong (1996-2006). In recent years, Hong Kong has grown to become Asia's most important auction centre. Furthermore, both Christie’s and Sotheby’s have been influential in further developing the Asian market, becoming the leading auction houses in such region today. Based on my research, the factors determining the auction prices include auction estimates, market trends, economic situation, collectors’ preferences and catastrophes. Among all the factors mentioned above, auction estimate suggested by the auction houses is the most important one. My thesis aims to help collectors reduce the associated investment risks by employing scientific approach, i.e. technical analysis, when they procure the artwork in auction events.
This paper seeks to unravel factors in determining auction prices and provide a more reliable auction pricing model. My research method is based on quantitative analysis by using the auction results of Zhang Da Qian’s landscape paintings in Hong Kong (1996-2006). In recent years, Hong Kong has grown to become Asia's most important auction centre. Furthermore, both Christie’s and Sotheby’s have been influential in further developing the Asian market, becoming the leading auction houses in such region today. Based on my research, the factors determining the auction prices include auction estimates, market trends, economic situation, collectors’ preferences and catastrophes. Among all the factors mentioned above, auction estimate suggested by the auction houses is the most important one. My thesis aims to help collectors reduce the associated investment risks by employing scientific approach, i.e. technical analysis, when they procure the artwork in auction events.
Description
Keywords
張大千, 山水畫作, 香港藝術拍賣, 成交價格, 鑑價模式, Zhang Da-Qian, Landscape Painting, Art Auction in Hong Kong, Price Realized (price includes buyer's premium), Auction Pricing Model