A Study of the Secular Temperature Increase in Taiwan Compared with Global Warming
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Date
1999-11-??
Authors
陳國彥
徐勝一
丘逸民
胡金印
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
地理學系
Department of Geography, NTNU
Department of Geography, NTNU
Abstract
本文藉台灣中央氣象局的五個氣象站的月均溫與年均溫資料，來分析台灣地區現代(1897-1997)氣溫變化趨勢，並與同期的世界氣溫變化趨勢進行比較。本文首先檢定各站氣象資料序列的一致性程度，然後以低通濾波、趨勢分析、頻譜分析、主成分分析等統計方法，來探討台灣地區的現代氣溫變化趨勢。分析結果顯示在現代(1897-1997)，五個氣象站的所錄得的氣溫均有明顯的上昇趨勢，其中以夏季氣溫的上昇最為強烈。五個氣象站的氣溫資料在透過主成分分析後，可降維為一個由筆者命名為「全台灣氣溫序列」(all Taiwan temperature series )的主成分，此主成分所代表的台灣地區現代(1897-1997)的氣溫上昇趨勢是甚為明顯的，達1.14℃，較同時期全球氣溫的上昇值高出0.60℃，約為全球氣溫上昇值的兩倍。在台灣地區的現代氣溫上昇趨勢中，有些時期的氣溫變化週期與艾尼紐∕南方振盪及準二年振盪(QBO)具有遙相關。
Monthly temperature data of five meteorological stations under the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan were analysed over the longest available observation period (101years, 1897-1997), aiming to detect recent temperature changes in Taiwan and to compare the observations with global warming. After testing the homogeneity of the data series, different statistical meth-ods, such as low-pass filtering, trend analysis, spectral analysis, and principal component analy-sis, were applied to analyse recent temperature changes in Taiwan. As a result, temperatures have strikingly increased at all five stations over the secular period. Season-wise, the strongest increase was observed during summer. An "All-Taiwan Temperature Series" was constructed to have a long and reliable area mean temperature time series for whole Taiwan applying principal component analysis. Notably to see is the strong and significant temperature increase of 1.14℃ over the period 1897-1997, whereas the global temperatures show an increase of only 0.60℃ over the same period. Most strikingly to note that temperatures in Taiwan have increased double compared with glob-al warming.Over the whole observation period also some regular fluctuations of temperature were detected which can be related to the teleconnection El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and the quasi-biennual-oscillation.
Monthly temperature data of five meteorological stations under the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan were analysed over the longest available observation period (101years, 1897-1997), aiming to detect recent temperature changes in Taiwan and to compare the observations with global warming. After testing the homogeneity of the data series, different statistical meth-ods, such as low-pass filtering, trend analysis, spectral analysis, and principal component analy-sis, were applied to analyse recent temperature changes in Taiwan. As a result, temperatures have strikingly increased at all five stations over the secular period. Season-wise, the strongest increase was observed during summer. An "All-Taiwan Temperature Series" was constructed to have a long and reliable area mean temperature time series for whole Taiwan applying principal component analysis. Notably to see is the strong and significant temperature increase of 1.14℃ over the period 1897-1997, whereas the global temperatures show an increase of only 0.60℃ over the same period. Most strikingly to note that temperatures in Taiwan have increased double compared with glob-al warming.Over the whole observation period also some regular fluctuations of temperature were detected which can be related to the teleconnection El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and the quasi-biennual-oscillation.