臺灣地區人口老化空間變遷與特性分析

Abstract

The focus of this study is on the spatial changes and characteristics of population aging between 1970 and 1990 based on the 360 districts of townships (Country, Town, City and District) as units of analysis. First, the process of spatial changes was investigated based on the different stages of the mean age, the percentage of old people and the aging index over through the critical point. Second, the main factor of population aging which including decrease in the birth rate and historical changes of migration would be analysed. Finally, the reason for which the regional characteristics of aging was made by the above two factors would be given. The results are as follows: Population aging occurs first in the rural or economically undeveloped areas, e.g. the hills of Hsinchu-Miaoli and its southeastern part areas, and the southwestern hills of Central Mountains. The way of diffusion is from the above areas outward to neighbouring townships, then to some big cities. The decrease oft he total fertility rate (TFR) was larger in the eighties and the value of TFR was below replacement level in over half of the townships. The diffused direction of TFR is opposite to the above, from the metropolitan or big cities, then the small cities and finally, the countryside. However, metropolitan and industrial areas are the places of immigration and also with the positive net migration rates. There are three types of population aging in Taiwan: <Progressive aging through emigration>, <Decreased aging through immigration>, and <Progressive aging through immigration>. The first type is most serious in rural areas, the second in metropolitan areas, and the third among areas with high numbers of veteran homes.