二十一世紀初期中國石油安全戰略

Abstract

隨著世界經濟復蘇，全球原油需求增長大大超出預計，國際油價攀升至21年來的最高位。中國經濟的高速增長導致對原油需求大幅增加，國內石油供需矛盾突出，自1993年成為石油淨進口國後，中國被迫放棄了長達30年來自給自足政策，石油安全逐漸成為中共外交與戰略重點。 2004年，中國超越日本成為僅次於美國的第二大石油消費國，全年石油進口量突破一億噸大關。石油外交成為中國外交戰略上僅次於大國外交的第二大戰略點。 對於石油消費國來說，石油安全是指石油進口來源的多元化和石油安全戰略儲備。本文將從制度學派的觀點觀察中國積極規劃的能源安全儲備制度，以降低經濟發展過程中的不確定性因素所造成交易成本上升，確保經濟穩定發展的成就與國家安全的戰略目標。 最後從國際關係的角度上，分析及判斷中國未來是否可能為突破國際困境，謀求石油安全而引發區域性軍事衝突，或是全面性戰爭。

Recovers along with the world economics, the global crude oil demand grows greatly surpasses the estimate, the international oil price climbs to for 21 years most top digit. The Chinese economy high speed growth causes to the crude oil demand large increase, the domestic petroleum supply and demand contradictory is prominent. Became the petroleum net import country since 1993, China was compelled to give up for 30 year self-sufficient policies, the petroleum safe gradually becomes the Chinese Communist Party diplomacy and the strategic key point. In 2004, China surmounts Japan to become is only inferior to US'S second big petroleum expense country. Whole year the petroleum import quantity breaks through hundred million tons critical junctions. The petroleum diplomacy becomes in the Chinese diplomacy strategy to be only inferior to the great nation diplomacy second big strategic spot. As for the petroleum expense country that, the petroleum security is refers to multiplex and the petroleum security strategic reserve which the petroleum import originates. This article will observe the Chinese positive plan from the institutional school viewpoint the energy security reserve system. Reduces in the economy developing process not the definite factor to create the transaction cost rise, guarantees the economical stable development the achievement and the national security strategic target. Finally, from in the international relational angle, whether will analyze and judges China future possibly for the breakthrough international difficult position, will seek the petroleum security to initiate the regional military conflict, perhaps comprehensive war.