美國貨幣政策對中國貿易餘額之影響

Abstract

美國的貨幣政策對於全球經濟貿易皆產生重要影響，自從2001年中國加入世界貿易組織後，中國對美國的貿易順差逐年擴大，中國對美國龐大的貿易順差問題也受到關注。因此，探討美國貨幣政策對中美貿易餘額的影響，研究期間為 2000 年 1 月至 2022 年 12 月，共276筆資料。透過SVAR模型、衝擊反應函數、誤差變異數分解，本文得到以下結果。研究發現，在美國實施緊縮貨幣政策時，中國的工業生產指數會受到負面影響，中國會採取寬鬆的政策以抵銷美國利率上升對產出的負面影響。然而，在衝擊反應函數的分析中，中國的貨幣供給量和匯率對美國利率衝擊的影響並不顯著，這可能與中國貨幣政策工具的干預有關。此外，中國的匯率和資本管制也可能抵銷了美國貨幣政策的效果傳遞。最後，美國升息對中美貿易餘額產生了負面影響，中國的貿易盈餘可能會減少。這可以解釋為，由於美國的產出減緩，美國對中國進口的需求降低，進而影響了中國的出口。此外，還發現石油價格的波動會使美國降低利率，且對貿易餘額產生負面影響。而中國的工業生產指數對石油價格的波動具有一定的影響力，與中國龐大的石油需求有關。

The US monetary policy has a significant impact on the global economy and trade. China’s trade surplus with the United States gradually increased has also garnered attention. Therefore, this study focus on the effects of US monetary policy on the US-China trade balance. The sample period is started from January 2000 to December 2022, and comprised 276 data points.The main finding is that the contractionary monetary policy of US negatively affected China's industrial production index. In response, China adopts an easy policy to prevent domestic output from declining. However, in the impulse response functions, the influence of the US monetary policy on China's money supply and exchange rate is not significant, which may be related to the operational methods of China's monetary policy tools. Additionally, China's exchange rate and capital controls may offset the transmission of US monetary policy effects. Finally, US interest rate hikes have a negative impact on the US-China trade balance, potentially reducing China's trade surplus. This can be explained by the decrease of US demand for Chinese imports due to slower US output, thereby affecting China's exports. Furthermore, it is also observed that fluctuations in oil prices lead the United States to lower interest rates, negatively impacting the trade balance. China's industrial production index also exerts a certain level of influence on the volatility of oil prices, which is connected to China's substantial oil demand.