氣候變遷下的水資源供應與產業發展—以新竹科學園區為例

Abstract

隨著全球受到氣候變遷的影響，各地乾旱事件發生的頻率逐漸增加，水資源的供給產生壓力，產業未來將面臨到缺水風險。其中半導體產業需要使用大量的水，以目前高階製程晶片持續發展並擴大設廠的速度，未來半導體產業用水量勢必大幅增加。臺灣新竹科學園區為全球重要的半導體供應區，若未來面臨缺水導致晶片無法及時生產，將使全球晶片供應鏈受到衝擊，因此分析未來竹科可能會面臨到的缺水風險，將能夠幫助政府或是廠商能更好的調配水資源，以降低晶片供應不足的風險與減少產值損失。供應新竹科學園區的用水主要以寶山水庫及寶山第二水庫為主，因此本研究利用物質流分析計算在不同氣候變遷模式及兩種用水情境下寶山水庫及寶二水庫 2025-2100年的模擬蓄水量，並分析 2025-2040、2041-2060、2061-2080 與 2081-2100 等四個時期及 4 個 RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway)情境下，各月份寶山水庫及寶二水庫的缺水與減供風險，並量化寶二水庫擴容工程能夠為竹科減少的產值損失。研究結果發現，整體趨勢下工業優先情境比起農業優先情境的缺水與減供比例要降低很多。在這兩種用水情境下，RCP6.0 在缺水與減供比例的表現均是最嚴重的情境，RCP8.5 並非為最嚴重情境。農業優先情境下的缺水高峰月份落在 12-2 月，減供高峰月份是 11-2 月；工業優先情境下的缺水高峰月份落在 2-4 月，減供高峰月份是 12-2月。寶二水庫擴容工程未來可有效減少缺水天數，經評估後在工業優先情境的 2061-2080 年最高可以減少每年約 665 億 8195 萬 6500 元的產值損失。本研究之結果可提供政府及新竹科學園區廠商針對未來缺水及減供的風險示警，並建議調適措施之預備時間做為參考。As the world is affected by climate change, the frequency of droughts is gradually increasing across various regions, putting pressure on water resources supply. This poses a future risk of water shortage for industries. The semiconductor industry, which particularly requires large amounts of water. With the ongoing development and rapid expansion of advanced chip manufacturing processes, the water consumption in the semiconductor industry is expected to rise significantly. Hsinchu Science Park in Taiwan is a crucial hub for global semiconductor supply region. If chips can’t be produced in time because of future water shortages, the global chip supply chain will be impacted. Therefore, analyzing the potential water shortage risks that the Hsinchu Science Park might face can assist the government and manufacturers better manage water resources, thereby reducing the risk of insufficient chip supply and minimizing economic value damage.The water supply for the Hsinchu Science Park primarily relies on Baoshan Reservoir and Second Baoshan Reservoir. This study uses material flow analysis to calculate the simulated water capacity of Baoshan Reservoir and Second Baoshan Reservoir from 2025-2100 under different climate change models and two water usage scenarios. It analyzes the water shortage and supply reduction risks for Baoshan Reservoir and Second Baoshan Reservoir across four periods: 2025-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100, also under four RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenarios. It assesses the risks of water shortages and supply reduction for each month in Baoshan Reservoir and Second Baoshan Reservoir. Additionally, the study quantifies the potential reduction in economic value damage for Hsinchu Science Park resulting from the capacity expansion construction of Second Baoshan Reservoir.This study results indicate that, overall, the ratio of water shortage days and water supply reduction days of the industrial-priority scenario is significantly lower compared to the agricultural-priority scenario. Among these two water usage scenarios, RCP6.0 exhibits the most severe scenario of the ratio of water shortage days and water supply reduction days, whereas RCP8.5 is not the most severe one. In the agriculture-priority scenario, the peak months of water shortage is from December to February, and the peak months of water supply reduction is from November to February. For the industrial-priority scenario, the peak months of water shortage is from February to April, and the peak months of water supply reduction is from December to February. The capacity expansion construction of Second Baoshan Reservoir is expected to effectively reduce the number of water shortage days in the future, and it might potentially decrease the annualeconomic value damage by approximately NT$66.581965 billion in 2061-2080 under the industrial-priority scenario. The results of this study can provide the government and manufacturers in Hsinchu Science Park with early warnings of future risks of water shortage and water supply reduction, as well as serve as a reference for the timing of adaptive measures.