台灣的選舉與大陸政策

Abstract

2012 年1 月台灣將舉行第五次的總統直接選舉。一些研究及歷史經驗都顯示，在 1996 到2008 年的歷次總統大選舉行之前，台灣對於中國大陸皆曾出現較具衝突性質的 政策或行動。本計畫的目的有二，首先是探究在2012 年的大選週期內，台灣是否曾出 現具有衝突性質的大陸政策或言行；其次則探討導致2012 年大選期間台灣出現、或沒 有出現挑釁中國大陸言行的因素為何。針對第一個目的，本計畫將建立事件資料庫，並 運用時間序列統計分析法進行研究。就第二個目的而言，本計畫將以書面檢索與訪談方 式收集資料，並運用內容分析法分析資料，以探討「民意」、「任期限制」、「選情」、「個 人意識型態」等四個變項之間的關連，以及此關連對於候選人是否出現衝突性大陸政策 之影響。

In January, 2012 Taiwan is going to hold its fifth presidential election. Will this election follow the steps of four other elections from 1996 to 2008 by witnessing Taiwanese politicians directing conflictual actions against Mainland China as elections neared, a pattern that has been identified by some research, or not? What are the factors that contribute to the occurrence of such actions or lack thereof? To answer the first question, this project is going to construct an event dataset and apply the VAR time-series analysis. As for the second question, this project will apply the method of content analysis on newspaper reports, books, and interviews to clarify how presidential candidates prioritize the importance of public opinion, term limit, electoral competitiveness, and personal ideology when making their Mainland policy during the election.