股利成長與風險值(VaR)指標的投資組合表現研究：以台灣股市為例

Abstract

本研究旨在探討股利成長與風險值（Value at Risk, VaR）指標對於投資組合表現的影響，特別聚焦於台灣股市。隨著台灣逐漸邁入高齡化社會，追求高股息的投資策略逐漸受到重視，尤重避免投資者在獲得股息的同時，卻因資本損失而賠付本金。本研究係通過結合股息成長和VaR風險的選股策略，以期創建一個既能帶來穩定現金流量又能抵抗市場波動的投資組合。研究首先回顧股利政策文獻基礎與VaR在金融風險管理中的優勢及目前巿場現況，確立理論架構；其次，採用台灣股市中的上市公司數據進行分析，通過篩選條件選出具有巿值及流動性且連續股利成長的公司以及進行VaR計算。實證結果顯示，採用股利成長策略的投資組合，在經濟穩定與動盪時期均表現出較高的穩定性和較低的VaR風險，證實了股利成長作為一種有效的風險調節機制。此外，結合低VaR策略進一步強化了投資組合的防禦性，特別是在市場下行時提供了額外的保護。最後，本研究提出投資策略上的建議，強調在組建投資組合時應充分考慮股利成長的潛力與公司的VaR風險管理能力。此外，建議投資者在選擇股票時，應更加關注那些能夠在經濟波動期保持股利支付穩定性的公司。

This study aims to explore the impact of dividend growth and Value at Risk (VaR) indicators on portfolio performance, with a particular focus on the Taiwan stock market. As Taiwan gradually enters an aging society, investment strategies pursuing high dividends are gaining importance, emphasizing the need to avoid capital losses while obtaining dividends. This research combines dividend growth and VaR risk selection strategies to create a portfolio that can provide stable cash flows and withstand market fluctuations. First, the study reviews the literature on dividend policy and the advantages of VaR in financial risk management, along with the current market situation, to establish a portfolio construction framework. Next, data from listed companies in the Taiwan stock market are analyzed. Companies with market value, liquidity, and continuous dividend growth are selected, and VaR calculations are performed. The empirical results show that portfolios adopting a dividend growth strategy exhibit higher stability and lower VaR risk during both stable and volatile economic periods, confirming that dividend growth is an effective risk adjustment mechanism. Furthermore, combining a low VaR strategy enhances the defensive nature of the portfolio, providing additional protection, especially during market downturns. Finally, the study offers investment strategy recommendations, emphasizing the importance of considering dividend growth potential and the company's VaR risk management capability when constructing a portfolio. Additionally, it suggests that investors should pay more attention to companies that can maintain stable dividend payments during economic fluctuations when selecting stocks.