後疫情時代中華職業棒球大聯盟觀賽人數影響因素之研究

Abstract

新冠疫情爆發初期新冠疫情爆發初期，為避免群聚及交叉感染，許多公共賽事紛紛 採取應變措施，為體育運動產業造成嚴峻的挑戰，卻同時提供轉型的契機。許多職業運 動場館必須尋求機遇並將之轉化為發展的動力，瞭解影響運動賽事消費發展的決定因素 並進行預測。本篇研究使用中華職業棒球大聯盟 2022 賽季的 300 場資料，透過普通最小平方法 (Ordinaryleastsquares,OLS) 與Tobit模型的迴歸分析，旨在分析新冠疫情相關指標以及 其他控制變數，包括場館特徵、特殊節日、天氣狀況以及市場特徵對於職業運動觀賽人 數之影響。研究結果顯示，新冠疫情相關指標之確診人數對觀賽人數存在負面影響。由於疫情 風險的不確定性，觀眾選擇不參與大型聚會。此外，我們也發現主題日可作為有效提升 觀賽人數的行銷方法，透過營造獨特的氛圍和體驗，增加觀眾的參與和留存率，能夠吸 引更多觀眾前來觀賞，其影響程度甚至超越確診人數。研究結果有望成為職業運動在未 來面對公共衛生相關嚴重傳染疾病時的參考依據，協助運動場館在考量疫情的情況下， 加強場館的管理模式，透過評估觀賽人數，避免多餘的人力與經營成本。During the initial outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, numerous public sporting events took preventive measures to avoid gatherings and cross-infections. This presented significant challenges to the sports industry while offering opportunities for transformation. Many professional sports stadiums had to seek and capitalize on these opportunities to drive development and understand the determining factors influencing sports event consumption, thereby making informed predictions.This research utilizes data from 300 Chinese Professional Baseball League games during the 2022 season. It employs Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Tobit regression models to analyze the impact of COVID-19-related indicators and other control variables on attendance at professional sports events.The results indicate that the number of confirmed cases has a significant negative impact on attendance. The uncertainty surrounding the pandemic's risks leads to attendances opting out of large gatherings. Additionally, we observed that themed events, as a practical marketing approach, significantly enhance attendance. These findings are expected to serve as valuable reference points for professional sports in dealing with severe infectious diseases related to public health in the future. They can assist sports stadiums in strengthening their management models by evaluating attendance and minimizing unnecessary human resources and operational costs, particularly in the context of pandemic considerations.