鎏金佛拍賣市場價格初探(1997-2008)

Abstract

目前藝術品拍賣市場價格研究大多針對畫作，2010 年2 月瑞士雕塑家傑克梅第的「行走的人Ｉ」曾創下拍賣市場最高價，引起筆者針對雕塑類藝術品鎏金佛在拍賣市場上價格變化進行探究的動機。本研究以佳士得與蘇富比兩家國際拍賣公司於1997 年至2008 年12 年間拍賣鎏金佛的詳細內容與成交紀錄，整理成一樣本資料庫共180 筆，運用統計學方法，加以歸納、整理及分析影響鎏金佛價格的相關因素，並企圖推衍出鑑價模式。研究架構分別從歷年成交量、超過預估價格比例及總成交金額探討鎏金佛拍賣市場整體概況，接著，運用統計學方法中的相關分析（Simple correlation），探討「拍賣公司」、「拍品高度」、「拍品年代」、「拍品款識」、「預估低價」、「預估高價」與「成交價格」之間是否具有相關性。最後，以多元迴歸分析法（Multiple regression），建立一可供參考的鑑價模式。

Most of the research that has been done on art auction market prices has focused on paintings. The high price that has paid at auction for a work by the Swiss sculptor Alberto Giacometti inspired the author of the present study to explore the changes in market prices in the sale by auction of gold-plated Buddha statues. The study made use of transaction records, as well as detailed descriptions of the content of the transactions, from the sale by auction of gold-plated Buddha statues by the international auction houses Christies and Sotheby’s over the 12-year period from 1997 to 2008. This information was brought together to create a database with 181 entries; statistical methods were then used to categorize, collate and analyze the factors that affect the price of gold-plated Buddha statues, with the aim of deriving a valuation model. The study begins by using historical transaction volume data, data on total prices paid and the percentage by which anticipated prices were exceeded to examine the overall state of the gold-plated Buddha statue auction market, before going on to use statistical analysis to look for correlations between the auction house, the height of the statue being auctioned, the period in which the statue was made, the presence or absence of inscriptions on the statue, the reserve price, the anticipated highest bid, and the actual transaction price. Finally, multiple regression analysis is used to establish a valuation model that may be used as a reference by interested parties in the future.