探索線上影評與美國電影票房間的動態性：評分方向與數量的影響
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2010
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Abstract
網路的發達讓口碑的傳播可以不受到時間與空間的限制，而網路推薦系統的的功能提供人們發表評論與接收評論的平台。對於電影這種經驗財來說，線上影評成為廣告之外幫助觀眾選擇喜歡電影的可靠資訊來源。在許多文獻中，認為評分方向與評論數量是影響電影票房的可能因素，但不同的學者對於何者會影響票房抱持著不同的看法，因此本研究藉由2010年1月至6月在美國上映之電影的追蹤資料(panel data)探究線上影評與電影票房間的動態性。
本研究仿效Duan, Gu, and Whinston (2008b)的模型，除了修改他們所使用的口碑和收入等式外，另外加入了正負向評論差異等式，並以Yahoo! Movies網站中觀眾對於電影之故事、演技、導演與視覺的評分作為自變數來探究對於評論方向是否具有影響。本研究使用兩階段最小平方法來為三個等式求解。
本研究發現故事、演技和視覺評分皆會影響正負向評論差異，其中以故事評分的影響力最大。另一方面，除了再度證實Duan et al. (2008b)之結論認為評論數量對於票房具有影響外，也發現評分方向對於票房也具有影響，而票房對於評分方向與數量也都具有影響。
The development of the Internet helped the WOM spread without the restriction of time and space. The web recommendation system provides people a platform to post and receive reviews. For experience goods such as motion pictures, online reviews have become another reliable source other than commercials to help people choose the movies they may like. Many scholars argued that the reviews’ valence and volume can have an effect on the box office, but there are also those who hold a different opinion to this issue. So this study explores the dynamics between American motion pictures’ online reviews and their box office with the panel data of movies released from Jan, 2010 to Jun, 2010. This study followed the model of Duan, Gu, and Winston (2008b), not only were the revenue equation and WOM equation revised, but a POSTDIF equation to explore whether the rating of the story, acting, director, and visuals have an effect on the valence of reviews have also been added. This study used the 2SLS method to solve these three equations. This recent study found that the rating of the story, acting, and visuals all have an effect on the volume difference between positive post and negative post, and the rating of the story in particular have the largest influence. On the other hand, this study not only verified Duan’s perspective that the reviews’ volume has an effect on box office revenue, but also found that the reviews’ valence affects the box office. Lastly, the study showed that the box office influences review valence and volume reversibly.
The development of the Internet helped the WOM spread without the restriction of time and space. The web recommendation system provides people a platform to post and receive reviews. For experience goods such as motion pictures, online reviews have become another reliable source other than commercials to help people choose the movies they may like. Many scholars argued that the reviews’ valence and volume can have an effect on the box office, but there are also those who hold a different opinion to this issue. So this study explores the dynamics between American motion pictures’ online reviews and their box office with the panel data of movies released from Jan, 2010 to Jun, 2010. This study followed the model of Duan, Gu, and Winston (2008b), not only were the revenue equation and WOM equation revised, but a POSTDIF equation to explore whether the rating of the story, acting, director, and visuals have an effect on the valence of reviews have also been added. This study used the 2SLS method to solve these three equations. This recent study found that the rating of the story, acting, and visuals all have an effect on the volume difference between positive post and negative post, and the rating of the story in particular have the largest influence. On the other hand, this study not only verified Duan’s perspective that the reviews’ volume has an effect on box office revenue, but also found that the reviews’ valence affects the box office. Lastly, the study showed that the box office influences review valence and volume reversibly.
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Keywords
網路口碑, 線上影評, 評分方向與數量, 電影, Electronic word-of-mouth, Online reviews, Review valence and volume, Motion picture