中國大陸獨角獸社會資本與其估值績效：極端界限分析

Abstract

近年來，中國大陸獨角獸企業成長迅速，企業家數已躍居全球第二。先前研究多集中企業估值表現卻忽視其估值成長議題，且缺乏關注其背後之機構投資者(institutional investor)與其形成之社會網絡與社會資本。本研究則著重探討其社會網絡與社會資本與其估值及估值成長間之聯繫，以尋找合適的獨角獸企業估值方法。選用胡潤研究院之企業樣本，運用UCINET軟體進行社會網絡分析，觀察其網絡特征並量化衡量其社會資本，結合使用極端界限分析 (extreme bounds analysis, EBA)模型，通過遍歷式回歸估計的方式，分析其估值績效表現與估值成長的「穩健性」因素。實證研究發現，獨角獸企業之社會資本水準顯著影響其估值績效，而企業可靈活運用自身社會資本，結合在地經濟資源、政策資源與科技資源，顯著影響其估值成長表現。本研究提出一種運用社會資本之獨角獸企業估值衡量方式：有別於傳統企業運用大量財務數據之分析，根據企業背後機構投資者所形成的社會資本，對企業估值做出「穩健性」的衡量。並可結合在地創業生態環境而判斷其估值成長，為地方政府促進獨角獸企業成長改革提供策略性上的指導建議。In recent years, Chinese mainland has witnessed a rapid growth of unicorn corporations, propelling the country to the second position globally in terms of the number of corporations. However, existing research has predominantly focused on corporations valuation performance while neglecting the issue of valuation growth, and has failed to adequately consider the institutional investors behind these corporations and the resulting social networks and social capital. This study aims to comprehensively examine the relationship between social networks, social capital, valuation, and valuation growth of unicorn corporations, with the objective of identifying appropriate valuation methods. Drawing on a sample of corporations provided by the Hurun Research Institute, social network analysis is conducted using UCINET software to explore network characteristics and quantify social capital. Moreover, by employing the Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA) model and utilizing an iterative regression estimation approach, the study analyzes the"robustness" factors influencing valuation performance and valuation growth. Empirical findings demonstrate that the level of social capital significantly impacts the valuation performance of unicorn corporations. Additionally, corporations have the flexibility to leverage their social capital in conjunction with local financial environments, innovative capacity, and market entry conditions, thereby exerting a significant influence on their valuation growth performance. This study proposes a novel valuation measurement approach for unicorn corporations, which diverges from the conventional reliance on extensive financial data analysis. It offers a"robustness" assessment of corporations valuation based on the social capital formed by institutional investors. Furthermore, it enables the assessment of valuation growth by incorporating the local entrepreneurial ecosystem, thereby providing strategic guidance and recommendations for local governments in their endeavors to promote unicorn corporations growth and reform.