股吧投資專家對分析師長期盈餘預測影響之探究
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2022
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分析師在資本市場中所扮演的角色為蒐集、彙整和傳遞資訊給投資者，並發佈短期與長期盈餘預測。近年來，中國網路普及率愈來愈高，許多投資者在股吧分享自己的投資經驗。當愈多投資人關注網路投資專家在股吧上的投資意見，會對股市造成影響。此外，股吧投資專家興起對分析師產生競爭壓力，本論文目的係檢視具有影響力股吧投資專家首次加入後，能力佳分析師是否有較高誘因發佈長期盈餘預測。本研究亦檢視具有影響力股吧投資專家首次加入後，產業經驗豐富分析師是否有較高誘因發佈長期盈餘預測。實證結果顯示，股吧投資專家首次對公司發表意見後，能力佳分析師較可能發佈長期盈餘預測。實證結果亦顯示，股吧投資專家首次對公司發表意見後，產業經驗對分析師發佈長期盈餘預測並未有顯著影響。在敏感性分析，能力佳和能力不佳兩群子樣本中，分析師產業經驗與長期盈餘預測並未顯著。相反地，產業經驗豐富和產業經驗不豐富兩群子樣本中，能力佳分析師較可能發佈長期盈餘預測。
The role of analysts in the capital market is to collect, aggregate and transmit information to investors. Analysts issue short-term and long-term earnings forecasts. The Internet penetration rate in China has been increasing recently. Many investors have shared their experiences on the Gub forum. When more investors pay attention to the opinions of online investment experts on Gub, the views impact the stock market.Furthermore, online investment experts put pressure on financial analysts. This paper aims to investigate whether analysts with high ability are more likely to provide long-term earnings forecasts after Gub's investment experts express their opinions on the same firm for the first time. This study also investigates whether analysts with long industry experience are more likely to provide long-term earnings forecasts after Gub's investment experts express their opinions on the same firm for the first time. Empirical results show that analysts with high ability are more likely to issue long-term earnings forecasts after Gub's investment experts express their opinions on the same firm for the first time. Empirical results also indicate that industry experiences do not significantly impact analysts to issue long-term forecasts. In the sensitivity analysis, in the two subsamples of analysts with good and poor ability, analysts' industry experience and the tendency to provide long-term earnings forecasts are not significantly related. In contrast, in the subsamples of rich and less industry experience groups, analysts with good ability are more likely to issue long-term earnings forecasts.
The role of analysts in the capital market is to collect, aggregate and transmit information to investors. Analysts issue short-term and long-term earnings forecasts. The Internet penetration rate in China has been increasing recently. Many investors have shared their experiences on the Gub forum. When more investors pay attention to the opinions of online investment experts on Gub, the views impact the stock market.Furthermore, online investment experts put pressure on financial analysts. This paper aims to investigate whether analysts with high ability are more likely to provide long-term earnings forecasts after Gub's investment experts express their opinions on the same firm for the first time. This study also investigates whether analysts with long industry experience are more likely to provide long-term earnings forecasts after Gub's investment experts express their opinions on the same firm for the first time. Empirical results show that analysts with high ability are more likely to issue long-term earnings forecasts after Gub's investment experts express their opinions on the same firm for the first time. Empirical results also indicate that industry experiences do not significantly impact analysts to issue long-term forecasts. In the sensitivity analysis, in the two subsamples of analysts with good and poor ability, analysts' industry experience and the tendency to provide long-term earnings forecasts are not significantly related. In contrast, in the subsamples of rich and less industry experience groups, analysts with good ability are more likely to issue long-term earnings forecasts.
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股吧, 網路投資專家, 分析師能力, 產業經驗, 長期盈餘預測, Gub, Online Investment Experts, Analysts' Ability, Analysts' Industry Experience, Long-term Earnings Forecasts