應用馬可夫模式分析桃園海岸地區土地利用變遷之研究

Abstract

在工業化過程中，臺灣沿海地區常被設置為工業區或開發區，桃園海岸地區即是一例，包括觀音工業區、大園工業區及大潭工業區等。工業區的設置雖然帶動地方的發展，創造就業機會，增加交通建設及房屋建築，但也改變了當地的生態環境，破壞海岸防風林及沙丘，惡化海岸自然景觀。海岸防風林具有防沙、保護農田及人為設施的用途，對於常受到季風、颱風及鹽霧侵襲的臺灣西北部沿岸地區具有甚高的防護作用。然而，現今桃園縣沿岸防風林因海岸線、沙丘的內移及土地利用的改變，使其發展受到影響。為瞭解桃園海岸地區土地利用之變遷，並預測未來的發展狀況，本研究利用地理資訊系統分別建置1978年、1994年及2004年當地土地利用的空間分布，並應用馬可夫模式，分析土地利用的變遷情形，進而探討在不同土地轉移之情境下，未來可能的發展趨勢。

Under the industrialization process, many coastal areas were established as industrial parks or developed regions in Taiwan. For example, three industrial parks, Guan-Yin, Da-Yuan, and Da- Tam, were settled in the Tao-Yuan coastal area. The establishments of industrial park enhance local development, provide employment opportunities, and promote communication construction and house building. However, they also change locally ecological environment, destroy coastal windbreaks and sand dunes, and deteriorate natural landscape. Coastal windbreaks can be used to block sand, protect farmland and man-made facilities. It also protects northwest coast of Taiwan which is often attacked by monsoon, typhoon and salt spray. However, the retreating coastline, sand dunes and changes of landuse affect the development of coastal windbreaks in Tao-Yuan. The purpose of the research is to understand the change of land use in Tao-Yuan coastal area, and predict the development situation in the future. The Geographical Information System (GIS) is applied to delineate the spatial distributions of different land use types in 1978, 1994, and 2004 in the Tao-Yuan coastal area. Moreover, the Markov Model is used to analyze the change of land use, and predict the trend in the future.