宋代青瓷國際藝術拍賣市場之價格研究(2001-2010)-以宋代官窯、龍泉窯及耀州窯為例

Abstract

有價證券、不動產與藝術投資，被稱為全球最有規律的三大致富投資標的，其中，藝術品投資報酬率列為首，根據紐約大學教授梅建平(Jian-Ping Mei)和麥可．摩斯(Michael Moses)的「藝術投資的價格研究」，「梅-摩斯-藝術-指數」（Mei-Moses- Art-Index）顯示出全球股市近50年來的平均報酬率為11.7%，而藝術品的平均報酬率卻達12.6% 西方藝術市場界與收藏家們對中國瓷器評價極高，宋代是瓷器純熟的朝代，特別是宋代青瓷，宋代汝窯、龍泉窯、官窯、耀州窯及影青(青白瓷) 皆屬之。汝窯件數有限，成交量極少，影青的藝術市場雖量多但價差，故本研究僅就南宋官窯、龍泉窯及耀州窯以琢器(如罐、瓶、爐等)及圓器(如盤、碗等)的國際拍賣市場以量化統計、年化報酬率、投資報酬率等統計分析法，分析2001年至2010年宋代青瓷在國際藝術拍賣市場的價格變動情形及價量關係。 1978年中國開放改革，2001年起中國的新富階級成為藝術市場強大主力，中國古代瓷器價格上漲迅速，遠遠以倍數成長，2001年至2010年是中國藝術市場的黃金十年。國際拍賣是觀察藝術市場走向的櫥窗，觀察藝術市場最好的方法是採用拍賣結果，以世界三大拍場倫敦、紐約、香港三地，2001年至2010年間在佳士得、蘇富比春拍秋拍資料加上中國二大拍賣公司中國嘉德、北京翰海的拍賣情形作為研究資料，透過公開的量價指標反映市場價值與趨勢。 藉由本研究21世紀第一個十年的宋代青瓷的價量分析，提供喜愛宋代青瓷的收藏者在參與收藏時，能達到感性收藏、理性投資的資料參考。Investments on negotiable securities, immovable properties and art crafts are regarded as the three target investments to enrich people, in which art investment is listed on the top. The Mei Moses Art Index, proposed by Jian-Ping Mei and Michael Moses in their research on the price of art investment, reveals that the average rate of return of negotiable securities was 11.7% while that of art crafts was 12.6% in the last 50 years; the art investment is much more profitable. The collectors in the western art market have been keeping a high opinion of the celadon in China, known for those from Ju Ware, Longquan, Guanyao, Yaozhou and Yingqing in Song Dynasty. The celadon pieces from Ju Ware are rare; those from Yingqing are too many to be sold at a good price. So my study focuses on the inter- national auction market of the carved and the circle celadon from Longquan, Ganyao, Yaozhou, analyzing their price changes and cost-sale relationship with the statistical data, annualized rate, and return on investment. After the economic reform in 1978, the New Rich has become the majority in the art market since 2001, which results in a rapid, almost multiple, growth of the ancient celadon price. The period from 2001 to 2010 is the golden decade of the Chinese art market. Since international auction is the window to the shift of art market, its auction results are credible. My research analyzes the auctions of Christie’s, Sotheby’s, China Guardian Company, and Beijing Hanhai Company in London, New York, and Hong Kong from 2001 to 2010, reflecting the celadon’s market value and its trend through the public OBV. With the cost-sale analysis of the Song celadon in the first decade of the 21st century, my research can provide the collectors with information indispensable to their reservation and investment.