我國民眾避免全球暖化衝擊之願付價值研究

Abstract

聯合國氣候變遷跨國小組(IPCC)指出最近100年間(1906年~2005年)的溫度線性趨勢為升高0.74°C，且全球暖化極有可能為人類造成。面對全球暖化的威脅，於2009年在哥本哈根召開第15次締約國會議，並達成溫度升高不可超過2°C的共識，但是因應全球暖化的方案─調適及減緩策略的成本太過高昂，各國抱持著搭便車(free rider)心態，最終導致哥本哈根會議失敗，2010年坎昆會議也無進展。然而臺灣的環境永續性指數(Environmental Sustainable Index, ESI)評比反應出我國天然環境脆弱，再加上人為開發破壞大幅增加環境脆弱程度，未來在氣候變遷衝擊之下，人類生活的環境將面臨更嚴重的災害。2009年莫拉克颱風造成公共建設損失高達164億，顯得政府應盡早分析調適政策的成本效益並規劃相關策略，以降低民眾生命與財產的損失。因此，本研究採用條件評估法(Contingent Value Method, CVM) 開放式雙界二分選擇法詢問一般民眾避免氣候災害的願付價值，評估我國民眾對於氣候變遷調適策略的整體社會效益與成本，並以Hines et al.(1987)提出之負責任環境行為模式做為理論基礎。 本研究調查對象為全臺灣的民眾，共抽樣706位受測者，達95%信賴水準。受測民眾平均願付價值為1,316.1元（區間推定值介於987.08元～1631.94元），估計我國民眾避免全球暖化衝擊的願付價值約為104億元（78億元～129億元），且關於全球暖化知識水平越高、避免全球暖化衝擊的態度越積極或是有避免氣候災害的行為、亦或經常幫助氣候災民的表現都有助於願付價值的出價。此外，受災次數、年齡、居住地區、家庭人口數與個人收入亦會影響願付價值，且受災次數越多、家庭人口數越多，民眾避免全球暖化衝擊之願付價值則越低。 然而近五成的受測民眾不了解調適與減緩的知識，8成民眾不清楚再生能源價格的昂貴特性，8%的民眾不認為氣候變遷調適策略需要花費高昂經費，且僅有15.9%的民眾表示經常或總是以行動或金錢幫助受到氣候災害的居民，反應我國民眾氣候變遷素養不足之處，缺乏因應全球暖化的經濟概念與實際關注受災戶的行動。相關知識的缺乏，如不曾聽過氣候變遷調適策略的民眾容易出現無法確定或是願付價值為零元的現象。其中答覆無法確定的受測民眾，反應需要多一點的時間和資訊才能判斷，不願支付任何金額的民眾則表示對於政府施政沒有信心，應妥善利用現有的稅收而不是和民眾收錢。對於政府的不信任與施政的不透明，易隱藏我國民眾對於氣候變遷調適策略的真實價值。 在臺灣，調適策略的推動順利與否不僅需要全民參與達成社會共識，政治政策也應朝向透明化和全民參與性的模式。簡言之，於政策上，政府必須了解解決全球暖化衝擊的技術與調適的龐大財務負擔；於教育上，則必須提升全民以及政治人對於全球暖化政策的經濟概念，並且強調公民參與，共同參與環境的管理與治理，積極關注自身生活的環境以促使民眾具備避免全球暖化衝擊的能力，以期達到永續發展的社會。It has been recorded by IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) that a rise in global mean temperature has reached 0.74 degrees Celsius in one century, and it was likely cause by human beings. In 2009, in other to face the global warming problem, COP 15(the 15th Conference of the Parties) was held in Copenhagen. In the conference, an agreement had been reached that 2 degrees Celsius is the maximum of rise in global mean temperature. However, the conference agreement has failed because of the high cost of adaptation and mitigation, and there was no further solution in COP 16(the 16th Conference of the Parties) in Cancun. ESI (Environmental Sustainability Index) indicated the weak environment in Taiwan. In addition, the overdevelopment of land worsens the vulnerability of Taiwan. In 2009, Taiwan had paid for more than 16.4 thousand million dollars for Typhone Morakot; the anthorities concerned are supposed to offer some support to protect Taiwanese citizen from disaster. CVM (Contingent Value Method) has been employed to conduct this survey and using double-bounded open dichotomous-choice format elicit households WTP for improved adaptation program to understand the social costs. Besides, the theory of the Model of Responsible Environmental Behavior from Hines(1987) was also adopted as the basic structure of this study. The samplings of this study are all Taiwanese citizens. 706 samplings were chosen. In average, the samplings are willing to pay NTD1316.1 per person (NTD987.08~NTD1631.94), in the total of 10.4 thousand million dollars (NTD7.8 thousand million~NTD12.9 thousand million) with the whole people, to solve the global warming problems. WTP(willingness to pay) would be increasing according to samplings’ environmental literacy, attitude, experiences and socioeconomic status. However, almost half of the samplings are not aware of the knowledge of adaptation and mitigation. 80% of the samplings do not know the experiensive cost of renewable energy; 8% of the samplings do not agree with the high cost of adaptation policy; only 15.9% the samplings often take action to help environmental refugees. These evidences indicated the lackness of environmental literacy of Taiwanese citizens. WTP might become 0 while the samplings do not know what adaptation policy is and have no confidence with the government. Some unsure samplings expressed that they need more time and knowledge to make any dicision. The true value of adaptation strategies could not be understood by Taiwanese citizens because of government factors. In Taiwan, adaptation policies should be smoothly carried out not only by citizens but also by government. In short, government needs to solve the finicial problem of adaptation policies; citizens need to be equipted with more environmental literacy. Only the careness of environmental problems from both the government and citizens could help to reach the goal of sustainable society.