習近平上臺後中國對蒙古國外交政策的特點及趨勢

Abstract

自從2008年的金融危機之後，短短的幾年間大國關係經歷著戲劇性變化，在國際政治、經濟力量對比變化及各國國力競爭白熱化的情況下，各大國紛紛調整對外戰略和政策，而中國新領導人習近平上臺之後，也提出了新時代的中國對外政策。 對於崛起的中國而言，首要之務在於鞏固其後院，並在此基礎上發展南海與東亞的戰略部署，進一步將北京的國際勢力擴散到各個角落。中國歷來重視其北方的安全，其最大的歷史遺產就是萬里長城，自匈奴、蒙古帝國到後來的蘇聯（俄羅斯），都對中國的北方安全形成過巨大威脅，所以維護好北方的地緣安全至關重要，這將會是中國在其他方向（尤其是往海洋方向）拓展地緣空間的基礎。冷戰後中國迅速修復同俄羅斯的關係，隨後在中亞地區共同建立了以上海合作組織為核心框架的「堡壘區域」，然而，在政治體制理念上不同的蒙古國卻一直沒有加入這塊政治安全「堡壘區域」。 中國對蒙古國的外交政策不能單純以雙邊的角度來解釋和分析，其背後必定會有大國互動的反射或大國之間力量平衡改變的結果。因此本文通過攻勢現實主義的分析角度，從習近平上臺後中國總體對外關係的戰略出發，探索中國對蒙古國的政策以及其趨勢。

Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, the relations between great powers underwent dramatic changes within a few years. As a result of political and economic power shifts, major powers have gradually adjusted their foreign strategies and policies. Against this backdrop, China’s foreign policy entered a new era as its new state leader, Xi Jinping, came to power. As a rising power, China’s top foreign policy priority is to consolidate its power in the backyard, while Beijing strengthens its strategic deployment both in the South China Sea and East Asia and expands its global influences. In fact, China has always attached great importance to its security of the northern borders, which can be demonstrated by the building of the greatest historical heritage—The Great Wall. Historically, China had suffered tremendous security threats from the Huns, the Mongol Empire and the Soviet Union (Russia). Therefore, safeguarding its northern borders is an important cornerstone for China to expand its geopolitical sway, specifically toward the oceans. After the Cold war, China restored its relations with Russia. The two countries then jointly established the “Fortress area” under the framework of SCO in Central Asia. However, due to its different political system, Mongolia has never joined this political security “Fortress area”. China's foreign policy toward Mongolia cannot be fully interpreted and analyzed from a merely bilateral perspective. The impact of great-power interactions and changes in the balance of power among them have to be taken into consideration. Therefore, this thesis aims to analyze the strategies of China’s foreign policy after Xi Jinping came to power and further explores the trend of China’s policies toward Mongolia by applying the theoretical perspective of offensive realism.