臺海地區軍事互信機制之建構：以軍事熱線為例之分析

Abstract

臺海地區縱深短淺、軍事預警時間短，周邊演訓頻繁，容易擦槍走火。因此，兩岸專家學者紛紛倡議建立軍事熱線，主要目的是為了降低意外衝突事件的風險，避免衝突的升級。 軍事熱線措施屬於信心建立措施（Confidence-building Measures, CBMs）的溝通性措施。而溝通性措施是指，在有衝突傾向或緊張關係的國家之間維持一個溝通的管道，作為危機來臨時，有助於化解緊張衝突的溝通管道。建立熱線被認為是CBMs的重要項目之一，其目的是建立兩個對立國家軍事部門之間的通報系統，避免意外發生，藉由穩定兩個敵對國家之間的軍事關係，進而發展出可預測的行為。 本文以美、中、臺關係為主軸，就軍事互信機制理論及兩岸軍事熱線相關文獻進行分析，進而歸納出理論性的通則及意涵。其次，深入分析兩岸建立軍事熱線措施的可能性及相關條件。本文發現，臺海地區建構軍事熱線的前提，需先有政治基礎及島內共識，並在實踐的過程中逐步提升互信，循序漸進的按階段進行；而兩岸在此政治基礎上，可逐步鞏固和平協議，保持良性互動，進而順應國際環境的整體發展，維持兩岸和平。

The area of Taiwan Strait is narrow, the time of military warning is short, and frequent military exercise will be probably conducive to conflict. Therefore, both experts and scholars have offered some proposes to establish military hotline in order to reduce the risk of accidental conflicts, and avoid escalating conflicts. Military hotline measures are communicational measures of “Confidence-building Measures” (CBMs), which are used to be dialogic channels between countries with conflicting tendencies or tensions. As temporary crises loom, these measures help to resolve tensions. The establishment of the military hotline is considered to be one of the important projects of CBMs. Its purposes include establishing notification systems between the rival military departments, avoiding accidents, stabilizing the relation, and then developing predictable behaviors between hostile countries. Based on the relations between the United States, China, and Taiwan, this dissertation firstly tries to summarize the theoretical principles and meanings of military confidence-building measures and military hotlines across the area of Taiwan Strait. Secondly, it employs these principles to analyze the possibilities and relevant measures of military hotlines across the area of Taiwan Strait. Accordingly, this dissertation finds that, there must be a precondition for constructing military hotlines across the area of Taiwan Strait, i.e., a political foundation and consensus. Based on this foundation and consensus, two sides of the strait are able to improve mutual trust. And then try to establish military hotlines stage by stage, consolidate the peace agreement and maintain virtuous interaction. In so doing, the relation between two sides of the strait will proceed with adaptation to the overall international environment. Finally, the peace-keeping between two sides of the strait will be achieved.