突破50公分: 三分線增長對籃球攻守表現的影響

Abstract

背景:國際籃球總會（FIBA）通過在2010年10月實施的國際籃球規則，其中最大改變為將三分線距離增長為6.75公尺。目的：探討三分線增長50公分是否會影響國際賽事的攻守表現。方法：透過FIBA所提供的攻守數據，將2009年、2011年五大洲錦標賽及2008年、2012年奧運錦標賽攻守數據匯入EXCEL，並進行變異數分析，顯著水準定為 α=.05。結果: 非洲於2011年兩分球平均出手次數比2009年顯著增加，2011年的平均命中率與加權之得分數顯著較少；其他攻守數據中，平均總籃板與失誤皆是2011年顯著較多。歐洲於2011年的兩分球加權得分數顯著較高，罰球的命中率亦是；其他攻守數據中，平均總得分在2011年顯著較高。亞洲在其他攻守數據中，平均總籃板數與助攻在2011年顯著較高，平均抄截數則為2011年顯著較少。美洲在其他攻守數據中，平均阻攻數在2011年顯著較少。奧運在其他攻守數據中，平均助攻數在2012年顯著較多，抄截則在2012年顯著較少。結論:規則的修訂對於攻守數據會帶來正、反面的效果，非洲在修改後的一年內較無法快速適應新制的三分線距離；歐洲不但未有不適應的情況，反而對攻守整體表現帶來很大的幫助。而其他洲的攻守數據並無因規則修改而有改變。建議:未來可透過其他客觀的記錄方式(標記分析法)，研究選手在兩分球出手的實際位置及三分線距離增長後其他攻守數據上的變化。Background: The most important change in the official basketball rules that FIBA (Fédération Internationale de Basketball) adopted in Oct. 2010, was to lengthen the 3 point line to 6.75M. Purpose of the study:The purpose of the study is to find out would the 50cm longer 3 point line effect the performance in international games. Method:By observing the box score that FIBA offered, the study used ANOVA to analyze box score of 2009, 2011 basketball champion cup in 5 continents, also the Olympic basketball game in 2008, 2012, and the significance levelαis .05. Results:In Africa, the average number of 2 points field goal attempts is obviously rise than 2009. And average field goal % and score in 2011 is obviously less than 2009. Also, average rebounds and turnover per game is obviously higher in 2011. In Europe, scores by 2 points attempted is higher, so does the free throw %. In addition, average points per game is obviously higher in 2011, but steals per game is lower. In American, average block shots per game is lower in 2011. In Olympic Game, average assists per game in clearly higher in 2012, but the steals is obviously lower. Conclusion: Changing of the rules would bring both optimistic and negative effects on basketball games, Africa couldn’t adopt new 3 point line within a year; Europe not only adopt on it, but also had better performance in both defense and offense. Other continents had no obviously change in the edited of the rule. Suggestion: Future research could use Marker Analysis to analyze if the players’ shot position had change when the 3 point line was lengthened. So does other defense and offense data.